Every July, particularly when a new presidential administration assumes office, speculation arises among those connected to the United States Supreme Court regarding the potential retirement of a justice at the conclusion of the term.
Following President Donald Trump’s election victory to reclaim the White House last year, such conversations commenced immediately. The focus quickly shifted to the court’s two oldest justices: Clarence Thomas, who will turn 77 next week and has served for 33 years, and Samuel Alito, who turned 75 in April and has been on the bench for 19 years.
Both Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, who align philosophically with Trump on numerous issues, are generally regarded as the court’s most conservative justices. Alito has also emphasized that he has no intention of retiring.
Nevertheless, current indications imply that neither is prepared to retire at this time.
David Lat, a regular commentator on the Supreme Court and the author of the Original Jurisdiction weekly on Substack, notes that both Thomas and Alito have engaged a full complement of legal clerks for the upcoming two years.
While the hiring of law clerks for a future term is not conclusive, it can be indicative and suggests that they intend to remain, according to Lat’s observations regarding Thomas and Alito. “They both appear very involved in their responsibilities at the court. They are quite active during oral arguments. They exhibit no signs of diminishing energy, and I genuinely believe that they have been revitalized by the court’s current workload rather than feeling overwhelmed, exhausted, or frustrated.”
Lat contended that Thomas and Alito “seem invigorated by the court’s pivotal role in contemporary American politics and society,” citing recent conservative achievements in reversing abortion rights, reshaping the administrative state, and reinforcing the First Amendment right to free exercise of religion and the Second Amendment right to bear arms.
Lat reported in Original Jurisdiction last month that he is of the opinion that “all nine active justices have secured their clerks for OT 2025 [October Term]—and looking forward, five out of nine have hired their clerks for the upcoming term.”
Lat observed that several clerks for Justice Thomas have indicated that he currently has no intentions of leaving his position.
“Of course, plans can change, but I just don’t envision it happening,” Lat remarked. “Some individuals suggest, ‘Look, they are in their 70s. Wouldn’t it be advantageous to replace Justice Thomas or Justice Alito with a similarly minded justice who is decades younger?’ I am not certain they consider these matters in political terms. They focus on whether they still feel they are contributing to the court’s work and if they are performing effectively.”
Only Justices Thomas and Alito seem to be the focus of retirement discussions.
The court’s three liberal justices—Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson—are very unlikely to resign while Trump remains in office due to concerns that he would appoint a conservative successor.
Trump’s three appointees from his first term—Justices Neil M. Gorsuch (57), Brett M. Kavanaugh (60), and Amy Coney Barrett (53)—are all relatively young and still early in their judicial careers.
Chief Justice John Roberts, who reached the age of 70 this year, disclosed in May that he does not intend to retire.
During a “fireside chat” on May 7 in Buffalo, New York, U.S. District Judge Lawrence Vilardo inquired about Roberts’ retirement plans.
“Some of your colleagues have stepped down,” Vilardo noted. “Have you ever considered that? I mean, you’re still young now, but someday, would you?”
“No,” Roberts replied promptly. “You know, I’m going out feet first.”
He continued to discuss how a decline in health might eventually change that decision, and how he had previously asked two friends to be ready to inform him if they thought it was “time to go.”
“Because you don’t always realize when you’re slipping,” Roberts explained.
After a lengthy pause, both friends simultaneously stated, ‘It’s time to go,’” Roberts recounted, eliciting laughter from the audience. “So I said, ‘All right, never mind.’