The Japanese government is advocating for enhanced preparedness to mitigate the projected death toll of up to 300,000 from a possible megaquake in the Nankai Trough. This underwater fault line, extending 500 miles along Japan’s Pacific coastline, has a 75–82% likelihood of a significant earthquake occurring in the near future.
In March, officials cautioned that a megaquake and tsunami could result in damages amounting to nearly $2 trillion and approximately 298,000 fatalities. Although a disaster plan established in 2014 aimed to reduce fatalities by 80%, a revised plan released this week indicates that current measures only lower the risk by 20%.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba highlighted the necessity for collaboration among the nation, local governments, businesses, and nonprofit organizations to preserve lives. The strategy encompasses the construction of evacuation centers, embankments, and an increase in the frequency of disaster preparedness drills.
Historically, megaquakes in the Nankai Trough have occurred every 100 to 200 years, with the most recent one taking place in 1946. Despite public anxieties exacerbated by social media and a manga predicting a disaster in 2025, experts such as Ryoichi Nomura, head of the Japan Meteorological Association, remind the public that earthquakes cannot be accurately forecasted.
The magnitude 9 earthquake in 2011 off Japan’s northeast coast resulted in 15,500 fatalities and nuclear meltdowns at Fukushima. A future megaquake in the Nankai region could prove to be even more catastrophic.
In the meantime, these fears have adversely affected tourism, leading airlines to cut flights and some travelers to delay their trips. Authorities are urging calm and preparedness instead of panic.
Public cooperation and readiness are essential to minimizing the impact of Japan’s next potential disaster.